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The Normal Distribution

Learning goals

  • Read probability as area under a density curve
  • Note that a single value has probability zero
  • Describe the standard curve, symmetric and fast-decaying
  • Apply the 68-95-99.7 rule as rounded percentages
  • Convert with z=xμσz = \tfrac{x - \mu}{\sigma} to use one table
  • Walk back to x=μ+zσx = \mu + z\sigma from a percentage

A shape that keeps turning up

Start with something you already built. In the Binomial Theorem lesson you learned that flipping a coin nn times produces (nk)\binom{n}{k} different ways to get exactly kk heads. You also learned that those counts are the rows of Pascal’s triangle. Take n=10n = 10. There are 210=10242^{10} = 1024 equally likely sequences of heads and tails, so the probability of exactly kk heads is

P(k heads)=(10k)1024.P(k \text{ heads}) = \frac{\binom{10}{k}}{1024}.

Now draw those eleven probabilities as bars. The binomial coefficients 1,10,45,120,210,252,210,120,45,10,11, 10, 45, 120, 210, 252, 210, 120, 45, 10, 1 are large in the middle and tiny at the ends. The plain reason is that there are many ways to get five heads and only one way to get ten. The bars pile into a hump.

Pascal’s row 10, normalised, against a bell curveEleven bars whose heights are the binomial coefficients 1, 10, 45, 120, 210, 252, 210, 120, 45, 10, 1 divided by 1024. A smooth bell curve laid over the bars tracks their tops closely.012345678910number of heads in 10 flips
The eleven probabilities for the number of heads in 10 coin flips, drawn as bars, with a bell curve laid over them. The bars are just row 10 of Pascal's triangle divided by 1024. Nobody put the curve there; it is the shape the binomial coefficients already have.

Coin flips are not special. What they are is a sum of many small independent effects: ten little pushes, each one either up or down, added together. Human height is the same kind of thing, a total of many genetic and nutritional nudges. A measurement error is a total of many tiny disturbances in the instrument and the air. A Galton board, a peg-covered board down which a ball bounces left or right at each row, is that idea made physical. The balls really do pile up in a bell at the bottom, because the number of paths to each slot is a binomial coefficient.

That is the pattern: add up many independent small effects and the total tends toward this one shape, provided no single one of them dominates the total. The claim holds whatever the individual effects look like. That proviso is not a technicality, and we will come back to it. When one ingredient is allowed to run away with the sum, the bell never forms, which is exactly why some famous quantities are not normal. The theorem that makes all of this precise is the Central Limit Theorem. It is one of the deepest results in mathematics, it is the reason the bell turns up in so many unrelated places, and proving it is far beyond this course. Name it, believe the Galton board, and move on. What this lesson can do honestly is describe the curve and work with it.

Probability as area, and one thing we cannot do

Coin flips are discrete: there are finitely many outcomes, each with its own probability, and the probabilities add to 11. Height is not like that. A person can be 170170 cm tall, or 170.4170.4 cm, or 170.4013170.4013 cm. There are infinitely many possible values and no way to hand each one a probability that still totals 11.

So the whole set-up has to change. For a continuous quantity we do not attach probability to points. We draw a curve, called a density curve, and we agree on one rule:

Probability is area under the curve. The area between aa and bb is P(a<X<b)P(a < X < b), and the total area under the whole curve is 11.

Everything follows from that rule, including a genuine surprise. Ask for the probability that an adult is exactly 170170 cm tall, to infinite precision. The region above the single point 170170 has width zero, so it has no area at all:

P(X=c)=0for every single value c.P(X = c) = 0 \quad \text{for every single value } c.

That is not a rounding convention. For a continuous quantity, every individual value has probability zero, and probability lives only in intervals. A first reaction is that this makes the model absurd (surely somebody is exactly 170170 cm). The resolution is that “exactly 170170 cm” is a claim about infinitely many decimal places, which no person and no ruler ever satisfies. Real questions are always intervals: between 169.5169.5 and 170.5170.5, above 180180, below 150150.

This has a consequence you should test yourself with. In the discrete probability you met earlier in this chapter, P(X<5)P(X < 5) and P(X5)P(X \le 5) differ whenever 55 is a possible outcome, because the second one also counts it. For a continuous quantity, the outcome X=5X = 5 contributes zero, so

P(X<c)=P(Xc).P(X < c) = P(X \le c).

The endpoint simply does not matter. Include it or exclude it, the area is the same.

Check your understanding

XX is a continuous quantity with a density curve. Which statement is true?

Answer choices

The curve, and the debt

The standard normal curve is the density curve given by

φ(z)=12πez2/2.\varphi(z) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}\, e^{-z^2/2}.

You can read every part of this. The exponent z2/2-z^2/2 is never positive, and since (z)2=z2(-z)^2 = z^2 it gives the same value at zz and at z-z, so the curve is symmetric about 00. It is largest when the exponent is 00, that is when z=0z = 0, so the peak is at the centre. And z2z^2 grows fast, so ez2/2e^{-z^2/2} collapses fast: at z=1z = 1 the height is e0.50.6065e^{-0.5} \approx 0.6065 of the peak, and at z=3z = 3 it is e4.50.0111e^{-4.5} \approx 0.0111 of the peak, about a ninetieth. That is why the tails look empty. The constant 12π0.3989\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} \approx 0.3989 out front is not decoration: it is exactly the number that makes the total area come out to 11. Where that number comes from is not something this course can show you.

Which brings us to the honest part.

We cannot compute these areas. Finding the area under a curve is the central problem of integral calculus, and you have not met calculus yet. That would be a fair enough excuse on its own, but the truth is worse and more interesting: this particular curve has no elementary antiderivative. The area function of ez2/2e^{-z^2/2} is the formula that would hand you the area from 00 out to any zz. That function is not built from powers, roots, exponentials, logarithms and trigonometric functions at all. Get the direction of that claim right, because it is easy to state backwards. The difficulty is not in writing ez2/2e^{-z^2/2} down, which we just did, but in writing down the area it encloses. This is not a gap in anybody’s cleverness; it is a theorem. So even a student who finishes calculus cannot write the area between 00 and 11 in closed form, because no such closed form exists.

What people do instead is compute the areas numerically, to as many decimal places as they like, by adding up huge numbers of very thin strips. They then write the answers down in a table. The table is not a definition and it is not a cheat. It is the record of a computation nobody can shortcut. Every number you are about to look up was earned that way, and knowing that is the difference between using the table and understanding it.

The 68-95-99.7 rule

Because the areas have been computed once and for all, we can state the headline results. For the normal curve, measuring distance from the centre in standard deviations:

The 68-95-99.7 ruleA normal curve with vertical cuts at minus 3 through 3 standard deviations. The labelled band areas are the rounded-rule figures, 34 percent, 13.5 percent and 2.35 percent on each side, chosen so they total the rule’s 68, 95 and 99.7. The exactly computed bands are 34.13 percent, 13.59 percent and 2.14 percent.34%34%13.5%13.5%2.35%2.35%-3-2-10123standard deviations from the mean
The normal curve, split into bands one standard deviation wide. The band figures shown are the rounded-rule bookkeeping, picked so that they add up to the rule's 68, 95 and 99.7. The exactly computed bands are a little different: 34.13%, then 13.59%, then 2.14%, with 0.13% left beyond 3 standard deviations. Use the rule's numbers for a quick estimate and the table for anything more.

For any normal distribution with mean μ\mu and standard deviation σ\sigma:

This is the 68-95-99.7 rule, sometimes called the empirical rule. Be clear about its status: it is not something we derived, it is the numerical answer rounded off. The computed areas are 68.27%68.27\%, 95.45%95.45\% and 99.73%99.73\%. The rule is a memory aid, accurate to within half a percentage point, and when a question wants more precision you go to the table instead.

Two useful facts fall straight out of symmetry. The two halves of the central band are equal, so each holds about 34%34\%. And what is left outside the 33-standard-deviation band is only about 0.3%0.3\%, split between two tails. So roughly 0.13%0.13\% of values sit more than 33 standard deviations above the mean. Rare, but not impossible.

Keep the rule’s numbers and the computed numbers apart, because they are not the same and a careful student will notice. The band figures 3434, 13.513.5 and 2.352.35 are the rule’s own bookkeeping, chosen so that they add up to 6868, 9595 and 99.799.7. The computed band areas are 34.13%34.13\%, then 13.59%13.59\%, then 2.14%2.14\%, with 0.13%0.13\% left in each tail beyond 33 standard deviations. The two agree to within a fraction of a percentage point, which is all the rule ever promised. So when a question says to use the 68-95-99.7 rule, use the rule’s numbers. When it says to use the table, use the table, and do not expect the last decimal place to match.

Worked example 1 Resting heart rates with the 68-95-99.7 rule

Adult resting heart rates are roughly normal with mean μ=72\mu = 72 beats per minute and standard deviation σ=8\sigma = 8. What fraction of adults have a resting heart rate between 6464 and 8888 beats per minute?

First locate the two endpoints in standard deviations from the mean. Since 64=72864 = 72 - 8, the value 6464 sits exactly 11 standard deviation below the mean. Since 88=72+16=72+2(8)88 = 72 + 16 = 72 + 2(8), the value 8888 sits exactly 22 standard deviations above it. So the question asks for the area from 1-1 to +2+2 in standard-deviation units.

Read that off the band picture. From 1-1 to 00 is 34%34\%, from 00 to +1+1 is another 34%34\%, and from +1+1 to +2+2 is 13.5%13.5\%:

34%+34%+13.5%=81.5%.34\% + 34\% + 13.5\% = 81.5\%.

So about 81.5%81.5\% of adults fall in that range. The table, which we build next, gives 81.85%81.85\% for the same question. The gap of about a third of a percentage point is exactly the price of using a rounded rule. That gap is usually a price worth paying for an answer you can get in your head.

The z-score, and why one table is enough

There are infinitely many normal distributions, one for every choice of μ\mu and σ\sigma. Heights in centimetres, test scores out of 800800, loaf weights in grams: all different curves. It would be hopeless to tabulate them all. We do not have to, and the reason is a piece of chapter 2.

Define the z-score of a value xx:

z=xμσ.z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}.

Read it as a unit conversion. The numerator xμx - \mu measures how far xx is from the mean, in the original units (centimetres, points, grams). Dividing by σ\sigma re-expresses that distance in standard deviations. A z-score of 1.51.5 means “one and a half standard deviations above the mean”, whatever the original quantity was, and that sentence carries no units at all. That is the whole trick: z-scores are the common currency in which every normal distribution can be compared.

The z-score as a change of unitsA single normal curve carrying two axes. The z axis runs from minus 3 to 3; the score axis runs from 200 to 800 in steps of 100, so that a z of 1 and a score of 600 mark the same place.-3-2-10123z, in standard deviations200300400500600700800test score, mean 500 and sd 100
One curve, two rulers. A test score of 600 and a z-score of 1 mark the same place on the same curve, named in two different units. Standardizing does not change the picture; it changes the labels on the axis.

Now here is why the trick is allowed, which is a stronger claim than saying it is convenient. A normal distribution with mean μ\mu and standard deviation σ\sigma has the density curve

f(x)=1σ2πe(xμ)2/(2σ2),f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}\, e^{-(x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)},

and the claim is that this is not a new curve at all. It is φ\varphi, shifted and rescaled, which are exactly the graph transformations you studied in chapter 2.

Every normal curve is the standard curve in different units#

Start from the general density and substitute the z-score. If z=xμσz = \dfrac{x-\mu}{\sigma}, then squaring gives z2=(xμ)2σ2z^2 = \dfrac{(x-\mu)^2}{\sigma^2}, so the exponent in f(x)f(x) is

(xμ)22σ2=z22.-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2} = -\frac{z^2}{2}.

Substituting that back, and pulling the 1σ\frac{1}{\sigma} out to the front,

f(x)=1σ12πez2/2=1σφ(z)=1σφ ⁣(xμσ).f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma} \cdot \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}\, e^{-z^2/2} = \frac{1}{\sigma}\, \varphi(z) = \frac{1}{\sigma}\, \varphi\!\left(\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma}\right).

So ff is built from φ\varphi by exactly two moves from the transformations lesson. Replacing the input by xμσ\frac{x-\mu}{\sigma} shifts the graph right by μ\mu and multiplies every horizontal distance from the centre by σ\sigma. Those two effects are what put the peak at μ\mu and set the width. Chapter 2 names a horizontal scaling by the input multiplier, never by its reciprocal, and the input multiplier here is 1σ\frac{1}{\sigma}. So in that lesson’s vocabulary this move is a horizontal compression by 1σ\frac{1}{\sigma}. It is the same move under both names, since dividing the inputs by 1σ\frac{1}{\sigma} is multiplying them by σ\sigma. The geometric phrasing is the one that matters below, and it has the advantage of staying correct whether σ\sigma is bigger or smaller than 11. Multiplying the output by 1σ\frac{1}{\sigma} then divides every height by σ\sigma, which is what keeps a wide curve from also being a tall one.

Those two moves cancel each other as far as area is concerned, and that is the heart of it. Cut the region under φ\varphi into thin vertical strips, each one close to a rectangle of width ww and height hh. The horizontal move multiplies every width by σ\sigma; the vertical move divides every height by σ\sigma. A strip that had area whwh now has area

(σw)(hσ)=wh,(\sigma w)\left(\frac{h}{\sigma}\right) = wh,

the very same area. Since every strip keeps its area, so does the whole region assembled from them.

Two honest remarks about that step. The strips only approximate the region, and the claim that the approximation becomes exact is one we are taking on trust. The table already asked the very same trust of you a moment ago, when its numbers turned out to come from adding up huge numbers of very thin strips. And notice what the argument does and does not do. It never computes an area. It shows only that two areas are equal, because a map that multiplies widths by σ\sigma and divides heights by σ\sigma leaves every area alone. That is why the argument is allowed even though computing either area is not: equality is cheap here, and evaluation is what costs calculus.

The total area under ff is therefore still 11, which is what makes 1σ2π\frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}} the correct constant, and, more usefully, corresponding pieces of area match up:

P(a<Z<b)=P(μ+aσ<X<μ+bσ).P(a < Z < b) = P(\mu + a\sigma < X < \mu + b\sigma).

Any probability question about XX is therefore the same question about the standard curve, once each value is rewritten as a z-score. One table can serve every normal distribution because, up to a shift and a rescale, there is only one normal curve.

Check your understanding

Jars of peanut butter are filled to a mean of μ=340\mu = 340 grams with standard deviation σ=4\sigma = 4 grams. One jar weighs 349349 grams. What is its z-score?

Answer choices

Reading the standard normal table

The table records one thing: the area to the left of a given z-score. Write it

Φ(z)=P(Z<z)=the area under the standard curve to the left of z.\Phi(z) = P(Z < z) = \text{the area under the standard curve to the left of } z.

Because a single point has no area, P(Z<z)P(Z < z) and P(Zz)P(Z \le z) are the same number, so you never have to worry about which inequality the table means.

The table entry as an area to the leftA normal curve shaded from the far left up to z equals 1. The shaded region carries the label 0.8413 and the small unshaded tail to its right carries 0.1587.0.84130.15870z = 1standard deviations from the mean
The table entry for z = 1 is the shaded area, 0.8413. It is the probability of landing anywhere to the left of 1 standard deviation above the mean, so about 84% of the distribution sits below that line.

Here is the table for zz from 00 to 33. Two columns of pairs, to keep it compact.

zzΦ(z)\Phi(z)zzΦ(z)\Phi(z)
0.00.00.50000.50001.61.60.94520.9452
0.10.10.53980.53981.71.70.95540.9554
0.20.20.57930.57931.81.80.96410.9641
0.30.30.61790.61791.91.90.97130.9713
0.40.40.65540.65542.02.00.97720.9772
0.50.50.69150.69152.12.10.98210.9821
0.60.60.72570.72572.22.20.98610.9861
0.70.70.75800.75802.32.30.98930.9893
0.80.80.78810.78812.42.40.99180.9918
0.90.90.81590.81592.52.50.99380.9938
1.01.00.84130.84132.62.60.99530.9953
1.11.10.86430.86432.72.70.99650.9965
1.21.20.88490.88492.82.80.99740.9974
1.31.30.90320.90322.92.90.99810.9981
1.41.40.91920.91923.03.00.99870.9987
1.51.50.93320.9332

The table starts at z=0z = 0 and never goes negative, which looks like half a table. It is a full one, because symmetry supplies the rest.

Negative z-scores: Φ(z)=1Φ(z)\Phi(-z) = 1 - \Phi(z)#

The standard curve is symmetric about 00, since φ(z)=φ(z)\varphi(-z) = \varphi(z). Reflecting the picture in the vertical axis therefore leaves the curve unchanged. That reflection also carries the region to the left of z-z exactly onto the region to the right of +z+z. Two regions that are reflections of one another have the same area, so

P(Z<z)=P(Z>z).P(Z < -z) = P(Z > z).

The total area under the curve is 11, and the region to the right of zz is everything that is not to its left, so P(Z>z)=1Φ(z)P(Z > z) = 1 - \Phi(z). Putting those two sentences together,

Φ(z)=P(Z<z)=P(Z>z)=1Φ(z).\Phi(-z) = P(Z < -z) = P(Z > z) = 1 - \Phi(z).

So a table of positive z-scores is a table of all of them. For example Φ(1.5)=1Φ(1.5)=10.9332=0.0668\Phi(-1.5) = 1 - \Phi(1.5) = 1 - 0.9332 = 0.0668.

Three question types cover almost everything, and each is a subtraction away from the table:

Check your understanding

Using the table, what is P(Z>1.4)P(Z > 1.4)?

Answer choices

Worked example 2 Comparing two scores from different tests

A student scores 8282 on a biology test where the class mean was μ=74\mu = 74 with σ=5\sigma = 5, and 9191 on a chemistry test where the class mean was μ=85\mu = 85 with σ=6\sigma = 6. The raw score 9191 is higher. Which performance was stronger relative to the class?

The raw scores cannot be compared, because they are measured on different scales. Convert each to a z-score, which is the same scale for both.

For biology,

zbio=82745=85=1.6.z_{\text{bio}} = \frac{82 - 74}{5} = \frac{8}{5} = 1.6.

For chemistry,

zchem=91856=66=1.0.z_{\text{chem}} = \frac{91 - 85}{6} = \frac{6}{6} = 1.0.

The biology score is 1.61.6 standard deviations above its class mean, while the chemistry score is only 1.01.0 above its own. So the biology performance was the stronger one, even though its raw number was nine points lower.

The table turns those into percentiles: Φ(1.6)=0.9452\Phi(1.6) = 0.9452 and Φ(1.0)=0.8413\Phi(1.0) = 0.8413, so the student beat about 94.5%94.5\% of the biology class and about 84.1%84.1\% of the chemistry class. This is what z-scores buy you: a way to compare performances that were never measured in the same units.

Worked example 3 A filling machine, with the table

A machine fills bags of flour. The weights are normal with mean μ=1000\mu = 1000 grams and standard deviation σ=10\sigma = 10 grams.

Part (a): what fraction of bags weigh less than 985985 grams? Standardize the cutoff first:

z=985100010=1510=1.5.z = \frac{985 - 1000}{10} = \frac{-15}{10} = -1.5.

The table has no negative entries, so use symmetry: Φ(1.5)=1Φ(1.5)=10.9332=0.0668\Phi(-1.5) = 1 - \Phi(1.5) = 1 - 0.9332 = 0.0668. About 6.68%6.68\% of bags are under 985985 grams.

Part (b): what fraction weigh between 10051005 and 10301030 grams? Standardize both endpoints:

z1=1005100010=0.5,z2=1030100010=3.0.z_1 = \frac{1005 - 1000}{10} = 0.5, \qquad z_2 = \frac{1030 - 1000}{10} = 3.0.

For an area between two values, take the area left of the upper one and remove the area left of the lower one:

P(0.5<Z<3.0)=Φ(3.0)Φ(0.5)=0.99870.6915=0.3072.P(0.5 < Z < 3.0) = \Phi(3.0) - \Phi(0.5) = 0.9987 - 0.6915 = 0.3072.

So about 30.72%30.72\% of bags land in that range. Notice that both parts were solved on the same table, even though the flour weights are nowhere near 00 and nowhere near a spread of 11. The z-score did all the translating.

Going backwards, from a percentage to a value

Every question so far handed you a value and asked for an area. The reverse question is just as common, and just as easy once you read the table in the other direction. You are given an area and you want the value that produces it.

The tool is the z-score formula, solved for xx. From z=xμσz = \dfrac{x - \mu}{\sigma}, multiply both sides by σ\sigma and add μ\mu:

x=μ+zσ.x = \mu + z\sigma.

In words: start at the mean and walk zz standard deviations. The procedure is to convert the percentage into an area to the left, find the z-score whose table entry matches that area, and then walk.

Worked example 4 Cutoffs for the top of a distribution

Test scores are normal with μ=500\mu = 500 and σ=100\sigma = 100.

Part (a): a scholarship goes to the top 6.68%6.68\%. What is the cutoff score? If 6.68%6.68\% of the area lies above the cutoff, then the area below it is

10.0668=0.9332.1 - 0.0668 = 0.9332.

Now search the Φ\Phi column for 0.93320.9332. It appears exactly, at z=1.5z = 1.5. So the cutoff sits 1.51.5 standard deviations above the mean, and

x=μ+zσ=500+1.5(100)=650.x = \mu + z\sigma = 500 + 1.5(100) = 650.

A score of 650650 or better makes the top 6.68%6.68\%.

Part (b): an interview goes to the top 10%10\%. The area below the cutoff is 10.10=0.901 - 0.10 = 0.90, and now the table does not cooperate: Φ(1.2)=0.8849\Phi(1.2) = 0.8849 and Φ(1.3)=0.9032\Phi(1.3) = 0.9032, and 0.90000.9000 falls between them. Our table is only printed in steps of 0.10.1, so the honest answer from this table is “a little below z=1.3z = 1.3”, giving a cutoff of about

x500+1.3(100)=630.x \approx 500 + 1.3(100) = 630.

A finer table, printed in steps of 0.010.01, gives Φ(1.28)=0.8997\Phi(1.28) = 0.8997, which is as close to 0.900.90 as makes no difference, and the standard cutoff is

x=500+1.28(100)=628.x = 500 + 1.28(100) = 628.

Three z-scores are worth memorising because they are asked for constantly: z=1.28z = 1.28 cuts off the top 10%10\%, z=1.645z = 1.645 cuts off the top 5%5\%, and z=1.96z = 1.96 cuts off the top 2.5%2.5\%. That last one is why 95%95\% of a normal distribution lies within 1.961.96 standard deviations of the mean. It is worth noticing that this 1.961.96 is not the same as the 22 in the 68-95-99.7 rule. The rule’s 9595 is the rounded area out to 22 standard deviations, which is really 95.45%95.45\%. Exactly 95%95\% needs 1.961.96.

Common mistakes

Practice

Multiple Choice Questions (MCQ)

Progressively harder sets of questions. Each opens on its own page.

Free Response Questions (FRQ)

Longer questions in parts, to be worked out on paper. Progressive hints, the answer on its own so you can check yourself and try again, then the full worked solution, plus a rubric to mark your own work against.

Free response Work it out on paper 5 questions Start →
More practice (optional)

Extra sets, as hard as the Challenge set. Each one opens on its own page.

More resources (optional)
A bit of history (Optional)

For a long time this curve belonged to astronomers. It described the errors in a hundred telescope readings of a single star, and it described nothing else. Measure a thousand people and you would expect no such shape. A person, after all, is not a mistake.

Adolphe Quetelet, a Belgian astronomer, looked anyway. In the 1830s he gathered the chest measurements of thousands of Scottish soldiers. They scattered into the same bell he knew from the sky. From that he drew an extraordinary conclusion. Nature was aiming at an ideal he called l’homme moyen, the average man, and every real person was an error around that target.

The measurements were sound; the interpretation was not. There is no target, and nobody is a miss. What Quetelet had stumbled on was the pattern this lesson describes. A human chest is a total of many small influences, and such sums do tend to a bell. The result carries conditions, though: the influences must be roughly independent, none may swamp the rest, and each must have a finite spread. Where those hold the bell is earned, and where they fail it has merely been assumed. His average man was a mean, not a design.

The habit outlived the mistake, and ranking people against a curve later did real harm. Keep that warning tied to the word normal. The curve is a model of the world, never a verdict on it.